Biostatistics & Population Health
Disease prevention levels: primary, secondary, tertiary
— Primordial: prevent the risk factor itself from developing (population-level policy: sugar taxes, clean air laws, school PE mandates, tobacco-free generations).
— Primary: prevent disease onset in at-risk but disease-free individuals (immunizations, statins for elevated ASCVD risk, HPV vaccination, seatbelt counseling, PrEP for HIV).
— Secondary: detect asymptomatic or early disease and intervene before clinical manifestation (screening mammography, colonoscopy, A1c in prediabetes, BP measurement, DEXA).
— Tertiary: reduce complications, disability, and recurrence in established disease (cardiac rehab post-MI, DM foot care, stroke secondary prevention with statin+antiplatelet, pulmonary rehab in COPD).
— New patient establishing care with no documented screening history.
— Chronic disease visit where vignette lists "last colonoscopy 12 years ago" or "never received Tdap."
— Post-event encounters (recent MI, stroke, fracture, COPD exacerbation) — the question is almost always tertiary prevention.
— Pre-conception, pre-operative, and transition-of-care visits.

— Age and sex: drive USPSTF screening grids (mammography 40–74, colorectal 45–75, AAA in male smokers 65–75, lung CT 50–80 with 20 pack-year history).
— Tobacco, alcohol, substance use: triggers counseling (5 A's), pharmacotherapy offer (varenicline, NRT), and altered screening intervals.
— Sexual history: determines HPV vaccination catch-up (through age 26, shared decision 27–45), HIV/STI screening cadence, PrEP eligibility, cervical cancer screening modality.
— Family history: BRCA referral (Ashkenazi, premenopausal breast/ovarian cancer in 1st-degree relative), early colon cancer (<50 in relative → colonoscopy at 40 or 10 years before index case), premature ASCVD (<55 M / <65 F).
— Occupational/environmental: asbestos, radon, silica, lead → targeted screening.
— Reproductive history: parity, breastfeeding, menopause age, gestational DM history (T2DM screening q3y lifelong).

— BP ≥130/80 repeated → lifestyle + pharmacotherapy per ACC/AHA; screen all adults ≥18.
— BMI ≥25 → intensive behavioral counseling (USPSTF Grade B); BMI ≥30 → offer pharmacotherapy/bariatric referral.
— Waist circumference >102 cm men / >88 cm women → metabolic syndrome workup.
— ASCVD Pooled Cohort Equation (age 40–75): ≥7.5% 10-yr risk → statin discussion; ≥20% → high-intensity statin.
— FRAX for osteoporosis: 10-yr hip fracture ≥3% or major osteoporotic ≥20% → treat.
— PHQ-2/PHQ-9 depression screening (USPSTF Grade B all adults).
— AUDIT-C for unhealthy alcohol use; DAST-10 for drug use.
— GAD-7 anxiety screening (USPSTF Grade B adults <65).
— Skin exam in high-risk patients (fair skin, family hx melanoma, immunosuppressed).
— Diabetic foot exam annually with monofilament — tertiary prevention of amputation.
— Oral exam for tobacco/alcohol users — tertiary prevention of metastatic disease.
— Fundoscopy or referral for annual dilated eye exam in DM — tertiary prevention of blindness.

— Cervical: 21–29 cytology q3y; 30–65 cytology q3y OR HPV q5y OR co-test q5y; stop at 65 with adequate prior screening.
— Breast: biennial mammography 40–74 (2024 update lowered start age from 50).
— Colorectal: start at 45, continue to 75; options include colonoscopy q10y, FIT annually, FIT-DNA q1–3y, CT colonography q5y. 76–85 individualized.
— Lung: annual low-dose CT 50–80 with ≥20 pack-year history, currently smoking or quit within 15 years.
— Prostate: shared decision 55–69 (Grade C); do not screen ≥70.
— BP: all adults ≥18, annually if normal, more often if elevated.
— Lipids: statin for primary prevention 40–75 with ≥1 risk factor and ASCVD ≥10%.
— Diabetes/prediabetes: screen 35–70 if overweight/obese, q3y.
— AAA ultrasound: one-time, men 65–75 who ever smoked.
— Obesity: screen all; offer intensive behavioral intervention.
— HIV: one-time 15–65; more often if at risk.
— HCV: one-time all adults 18–79.
— HBV: all adults at least once.
— Syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia: risk-based; chlamydia/gonorrhea annually in women <25.
— Latent TB: risk-based (immigrants, healthcare workers, immunocompromised).

— Family history of CRC in 1st-degree relative <60 or ≥2 relatives any age: colonoscopy starting age 40 or 10 years before index case, q5y.
— Lynch syndrome: colonoscopy q1–2y starting 20–25; endometrial sampling annually from 30–35.
— FAP: sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy starting age 10–15 annually.
— BRCA1/2 carriers: annual MRI + mammography starting 25–30; discuss risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy by 35–40.
— Type 1 DM: annual urine albumin/creatinine ratio and dilated eye exam starting 5 years post-diagnosis.
— Type 2 DM: same screens at diagnosis, then annually.

— Step 1: Does the patient have the disease in question?
→ No, never at risk = primordial.
→ No, but has risk factors = primary.
→ Asymptomatic but possibly present = secondary.
→ Yes, established = tertiary.
— Step 2: Match intervention to that level.
— Step 3: Confirm intervention has evidence (USPSTF Grade A/B, guideline-supported).
— HPV vaccine → primary (prevents infection that causes cancer).
— Pap/HPV co-test → secondary (detects dysplasia before invasive cancer).
— LEEP/cone for CIN3 → tertiary (treats established precancer to prevent invasion).
— Cervical cancer chemoradiation → quaternary in some frameworks, tertiary in classic three-tier.
— Folate fortification of grain → primordial.
— Folic acid 400 mcg in pregnancy → primary (prevents NTDs).
— Fetal ultrasound for NTD → secondary.
— Neonatal NTD surgical repair → tertiary.

— Statins: moderate-intensity (atorvastatin 10–20, rosuvastatin 5–10) for ASCVD risk ≥7.5% age 40–75; high-intensity if ≥20%.
— Aspirin: not for routine primary prevention; individualized 40–59 with high ASCVD/low bleed risk.
— Metformin for prediabetes (A1c 5.7–6.4, BMI ≥35, age <60, prior GDM) — off-label but ADA-endorsed.
— PrEP: TDF/FTC or TAF/FTC daily, or long-acting cabotegravir IM q2mo, for HIV-negative high-risk individuals.
— Tamoxifen/raloxifene/aromatase inhibitors: chemoprevention for women with ≥3% 5-yr breast cancer risk (Gail model) and low bleed/thrombosis risk.
— Statin for newly detected dyslipidemia.
— Antihypertensive for stage 1–2 HTN detected on screening.
— Metformin for newly diagnosed T2DM.
— Bisphosphonate for screen-detected osteoporosis (T-score ≤−2.5).
— A: Aspirin + P2Y12 inhibitor (DAPT 12 mo), ACEi/ARB.
— B: Beta-blocker, BP control.
— C: Cholesterol (high-intensity statin, LDL goal <70, consider ezetimibe/PCSK9), Cigarette cessation.
— D: Diet, Diabetes control.
— E: Exercise, Education, cardiac rehab Enrollment.

— Vaccinations (most cost-effective intervention in medicine): influenza annual; Tdap q10y; HPV 9-valent (ideally 11–12, catch-up to 26); zoster RZV 2-dose at ≥50; pneumococcal PCV20 or PCV15+PPSV23 at 65 (or earlier with chronic disease/immunocompromise); RSV one-time ≥60 shared decision, ≥75 routine; COVID per current schedule; Hep B all adults 19–59 (and ≥60 with risk factors).
— Risk-reducing surgery: prophylactic mastectomy or BSO in BRCA carriers; total colectomy in FAP.
— Polypectomy at screening colonoscopy — both diagnostic and preventive in one act.
— LEEP/cryotherapy for CIN2/3 detected on Pap.
— DCIS lumpectomy + radiation detected on screening mammogram.
— PCI/CABG after MI to prevent recurrent ischemia.
— ICD for EF ≤35% post-MI (≥40 days) — sudden death prevention.
— Carotid endarterectomy for symptomatic 70–99% stenosis post-TIA.
— Intensive behavioral counseling for unhealthy diet/physical activity in adults with CV risk factors.
— Tobacco cessation with 5 A's (Ask, Advise, Assess, Assist, Arrange) + pharmacotherapy (varenicline > combo NRT > bupropion).
— Alcohol brief intervention for unhealthy use.
— Fall prevention exercise in community-dwelling adults ≥65 with elevated fall risk.
— Healthy weight gain counseling in pregnancy.

— Stop cancer screening when life expectancy <10 years (mammography, colonoscopy, PSA, cervical).
— Cervical screening stops at 65 with adequate prior; colonoscopy 76–85 individualized; >85 do not screen.
— AAA screening one-time only 65–75 male ever-smokers; not repeated.
— Statins for primary prevention >75: shared decision; evidence weaker, frailty and polypharmacy matter.
— Aspirin: discontinue primary prevention in adults ≥60 (USPSTF 2022).
— Bisphosphonate "drug holiday" after 5 years oral (10 years if high risk) to reduce atypical fracture/ONJ.
— Adjust metformin by eGFR (avoid <30, reduce dose 30–45).
— Statins: rosuvastatin max 10 mg if CrCl <30.
— Bisphosphonates contraindicated when eGFR <30–35; use denosumab instead (no renal dose adjustment, but monitor for hypocalcemia).
— SGLT2 inhibitors retain cardiorenal benefit down to eGFR 20–25 (empagliflozin, dapagliflozin) — tertiary prevention in CKD/HF.

— Folic acid 400–800 mcg daily (4 mg if prior NTD pregnancy or on antiepileptics) starting ≥1 month before conception.
— Update Tdap (each pregnancy, 27–36 wk), influenza, COVID, RSV (32–36 wk Sep–Jan) — maternal immunization protects neonate.
— Avoid live vaccines (MMR, varicella) during pregnancy; give postpartum if nonimmune.
— Screen all pregnancies for HIV, syphilis, HBV, HCV, gonorrhea/chlamydia (if <25 or risk), GBS at 36–37 wk, gestational DM 24–28 wk.
— Newborn screen (state-mandated), hearing, CCHD pulse ox, hep B at birth.
— Lead screening at 12 and 24 months (universal in high-risk areas; risk-based elsewhere).
— Vision screen at well-child visits; objective screen ages 3–5.
— Dental fluoride varnish from primary tooth eruption to 5 years (USPSTF Grade B).
— Autism screen at 18 and 24 months (AAP; USPSTF "I" statement).
— Depression screening annually 12–18; suicide risk assessment.
— HPV vaccine starting 9, routinely 11–12.
— Adolescent confidentiality: STI screening, contraception, mental health typically confidential — varies by state.
— Recognize SDOH screening (food, housing, transportation, IPV) as part of preventive care.
— Refugee health: TB, HBV, parasites, lead, mental health, vaccine catch-up.
— Incarcerated populations: HIV/HCV/STI screening on intake.

— Overdiagnosis: detecting indolent disease that never would have caused harm (low-risk prostate cancer, DCIS, papillary thyroid microcarcinoma).
— False positives: unnecessary biopsies, anxiety, downstream cost (mammography ~10% recall rate).
— Cascade testing: incidentaloma → CT → biopsy → complication.
— Radiation exposure: cumulative from repeat CTs.
— Anaphylaxis to vaccine components (egg-based flu in severe egg allergy → use cell-based or recombinant).
— Guillain-Barré rare association with influenza vaccine — relative contraindication if GBS within 6 weeks of prior vaccine.
— Intussusception with rotavirus — give first dose by 15 weeks, last by 8 months.
— Live vaccines contraindicated in pregnancy and severe immunocompromise.
— Tamoxifen: VTE, endometrial cancer.
— Aspirin primary prevention: GI/intracranial bleed > cardioprotective benefit in low-risk and elderly.
— Finasteride (BPH/chemoprevention): may increase high-grade prostate cancer detection (controversial).

— ≥2 1st-degree relatives with breast/ovarian/pancreatic/prostate cancer.
— Breast cancer <50, triple-negative <60, male breast cancer, bilateral disease.
— Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry + any of above.
— Lynch criteria (Amsterdam II, Bethesda): CRC <50, multiple Lynch-associated cancers (endometrial, ovarian, gastric, small bowel, urothelial).
— Suspected FAP (>10 adenomas), hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (CDH1).
— STIs (syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, HIV, HBV, HCV).
— TB (suspected or confirmed).
— Vaccine-preventable diseases (measles, pertussis, meningococcal).
— Foodborne outbreaks.
— Lead poisoning (varies by state, typically ≥3.5 mcg/dL in children per 2021 CDC update).

— Primary: intervention before any disease/condition is present. Examples: HPV vaccine, statin in healthy high-risk, smoking cessation in current smoker (preventing future disease), folic acid pre-pregnancy.
— Secondary: intervention in asymptomatic patient to detect or treat early/subclinical disease. Examples: mammography, BP measurement that finds HTN, A1c screen finding prediabetes, Pap finding CIN.
— Secondary = early or asymptomatic disease.
— Tertiary = clinically established disease; goal is reduce complications/recurrence/disability.
— A statin in newly screen-detected hyperlipidemia (no events) = primary prevention of ASCVD (clinical) / secondary in public health framework (treating an asymptomatic abnormality).
— A statin after MI = secondary prevention (clinical) / tertiary (public health).
— Read the stem: if it asks "what level of prevention," use public health. If it says "primary vs secondary prevention of ASCVD," use cardiology.
— Screening = asymptomatic, average or risk-based population.
— Surveillance = known disease, monitoring for progression/recurrence (e.g., colonoscopy q3y after polypectomy, HCC US in cirrhosis).
— Diagnostic = symptomatic, working up a complaint.

— Lead-time bias: screening detects disease earlier; survival from diagnosis looks longer even if death date unchanged.
— Length-time bias: screening preferentially picks up slow-growing disease (longer preclinical phase); fast/aggressive cancers missed between intervals.
— Overdiagnosis bias: detecting disease that would never have become clinically significant (e.g., low-grade prostate cancer in elderly).
— Selection bias: screened populations are systematically different (healthier, better access).
— Correct metric to evaluate screening benefit: disease-specific mortality in RCT, not 5-year survival.
— Good screening test: high sensitivity (don't miss disease), reasonable specificity.
— PPV depends on prevalence — same test has lower PPV in low-prevalence populations → more false positives → harm.
— Confirmatory tests need high specificity to rule in.
— Herd immunity threshold: 1 − 1/R₀; measles ~95%, polio ~80%, COVID variable.
— Cluster vs individual randomization in community trials.
— Ecological fallacy: group-level associations don't necessarily apply to individuals.
— Important health problem; recognizable latent stage; accepted treatment; suitable test; acceptable to population; natural history understood; agreed policy on whom to treat; cost-effective; continuing process.

— Aspirin 81 mg indefinitely; P2Y12 inhibitor 12 months.
— High-intensity statin (atorvastatin 80 or rosuvastatin 40); LDL goal <70, consider <55.
— Beta-blocker ≥3 years (longer if HFrEF).
— ACEi/ARB if EF <40%, HTN, DM, or CKD.
— Aldosterone antagonist if EF ≤40% with HF/DM.
— Cardiac rehab referral within 1–2 weeks.
— Sublingual nitroglycerin PRN.
— Influenza, pneumococcal, COVID vaccines.
— Antiplatelet (ASA 81 or clopidogrel 75); short-term DAPT 21 days then mono for minor stroke/high-risk TIA.
— Anticoagulation if AFib (DOAC preferred).
— High-intensity statin; LDL <70.
— BP <130/80.
— A1c <7%.
— Smoking cessation.
— Carotid revascularization if symptomatic 70–99%.

— HTN: 1 month after med initiation/titration, then q3–6mo when stable.
— DM: A1c q3mo if not at goal, q6mo when stable; annual eye, foot, microalbumin, lipids.
— Hyperlipidemia: lipid panel 4–12 wk after statin start, then 3–12mo.
— Osteoporosis: DEXA q2y on therapy.
— Post-MI: 1–2 weeks, then 3 months, then q6mo.
— Post-bariatric: nutrition labs q3–6mo then annually; B12, folate, iron, vitamin D, Ca, PTH.
— 5 A's (tobacco, alcohol, diet): Ask, Advise, Assess readiness, Assist (resources/Rx), Arrange follow-up.
— Motivational interviewing: OARS (Open questions, Affirmations, Reflections, Summaries); roll with resistance, explore ambivalence.
— Stages of change (Prochaska): precontemplation → contemplation → preparation → action → maintenance; intervention matched to stage.
— Cardiac rehab post-MI/CABG/PCI/HF/valve surgery: 36 sessions over 12 weeks.
— Pulmonary rehab in COPD with mMRC ≥2, recent exacerbation.
— Stroke rehab: PT/OT/SLP starting in hospital, continuing outpatient.
— Home BP cuffs (validated), at least 2 readings AM/PM for 7 days for diagnosis confirmation.
— Glucose monitoring frequency tailored to insulin regimen.
— Peak flow or symptom diary for asthma.

— Patient must understand the purpose, benefits, harms (false positives, overdiagnosis), alternatives, and consequences of declining.
— Particularly important for PSA, low-dose CT lung screening, genetic testing — shared decision-making is mandated.
— Documenting "patient declines after discussion of risks/benefits" is appropriate when patient refuses recommended screening.
— Suspected child abuse/neglect (all 50 states, professional reporters).
— Elder abuse (most states).
— Intimate partner violence: counseling and resources required; reporting varies by state — most do not mandate reporting of competent adults unless weapon-inflicted injury.
— Reportable communicable diseases.
— Impaired drivers (varies by state, e.g., CA mandates reporting dementia/lapse of consciousness).
— Pre- and post-test counseling required.
— GINA (Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act) prohibits employment and health insurance discrimination but not life, disability, or long-term care insurance.
— Duty to warn family members? Generally patient-mediated; clinician encourages but cannot disclose without consent (with rare Tarasoff-like exceptions).
— Respect parental refusal after thorough counseling unless child abuse/neglect threshold met.
— Document discussion; offer revisit; consider AAP Refusal to Vaccinate form.
— Public health override (school mandates, outbreak quarantine) is legal but ethically constrained.
— Hospital discharge without medication reconciliation → adverse drug event.
— Missing follow-up appointment scheduling within 7 days post-MI/CHF → readmission risk.
— Teach-back method at discharge reduces error and readmissions.

— A = recommend (high certainty, substantial benefit) — do it.
— B = recommend (moderate certainty/benefit) — do it.
— C = selective offer based on individual judgment.
— D = recommend against.
— I = insufficient evidence.
— Mammography starts at 40 (USPSTF 2024).
— Colorectal screening starts at 45 (2021).
— Aspirin primary prevention not recommended ≥60 (2022).
— HBV screen all adults at least once (2023).
— Anxiety screen adults <65 (Grade B, 2023).
— Lung CT criteria broadened to 50–80, 20 pack-years (2021).
— Bike helmet → primary.
— Newborn metabolic screen → secondary.
— Insulin in T1DM → tertiary.
— Salt fortification with iodine → primordial.
— DAPT post-stent → tertiary.
— Cervical cancer vaccine → primary.
— Pap smear → secondary.
— Hysterectomy for stage I cervical cancer → tertiary.

— Stem: "A 50-year-old man receives the shingles vaccine. This is an example of what level of prevention?"
— Answer: Primary (no disease, preventing onset).
— Trap: confusing with "secondary" because patient is at risk — risk factors alone don't make it secondary.
— Stem: "A 65-year-old male former smoker (30 pack-years, quit 5 years ago) establishes care. Which is most appropriate?"
— Answer: One-time AAA ultrasound + low-dose CT lung screen + pneumococcal vaccine + colorectal screen.
— Trap: ordering carotid US (Grade D) or PSA without shared decision.
— Stem: "A new screening test detects cancer 2 years earlier; 5-year survival improves but mortality unchanged."
— Answer: Lead-time bias.
— Stem: "65yo man discharged after STEMI; which medication is most likely to reduce all-cause mortality?"
— Answer: depends on choices — high-intensity statin, beta-blocker, ACEi, aspirin all qualify; cardiac rehab if listed often wins for "most underutilized but evidence-based."
— Stem: "Parents refuse HPV vaccine for 12-year-old daughter."
— Answer: Provide education, address concerns, revisit at next visit — do not coerce, do not report.
— Stem: "82-year-old woman with severe dementia, life expectancy <5 years, asks about mammogram."
— Answer: Discuss stopping screening — benefit no longer outweighs harm.
— Stem: Elderly patient on 14 meds with falls and confusion.
— Answer: Medication reconciliation and deprescribing Beers-criteria offenders (anticholinergics, benzos, sliding-scale insulin).
— Stem: 4-year-old with patterned bruises and inconsistent history.
— Answer: Report to CPS, do not require parental consent or proof.

Prevention is the act of matching the right intervention to the right disease stage: primary stops disease before it starts, secondary catches it before it speaks, and tertiary blunts its damage once established — and on Step 3, the right answer is the one that fits the patient's current position on that spectrum, supported by USPSTF Grade A/B evidence and shared decision-making.
— Primordial removes the risk factor itself (policy, environment); primary prevents disease in at-risk individuals (vaccines, statins for high ASCVD risk, behavioral counseling); secondary detects asymptomatic/early disease (USPSTF screening grid); tertiary prevents complications/recurrence in established disease (post-MI bundle, DM foot care, cardiac rehab); quaternary prevents iatrogenic harm (deprescribing, stop screening when life expectancy short).
— USPSTF grades A and B = do; D = do not; C = shared decision; I = insufficient evidence. Memorize age cutoffs: mammography 40–74, CRC 45–75, lung CT 50–80 + 20 pack-years, AAA one-time men 65–75 ever-smokers.
— Tertiary bundles (post-MI, post-stroke, post-fracture, post-VTE, DM) are CCS gold — order the full bundle (antiplatelet + statin + BP control + lifestyle + rehab + vaccines), not partial therapy.
— Ethics/safety hooks: informed consent for screening with harms; mandatory reporting (abuse, communicable disease, Tarasoff); GINA protects health/employment but not life insurance; medication reconciliation at every transition of care; respect vaccine refusal after counseling but report true neglect; stop screening when life expectancy <10 years; deprescribe in frail elderly — quaternary prevention is now squarely on the exam.

