Biostatistics & Population Health
Cost-effectiveness vs cost-utility analysis
— Outcomes expressed in natural clinical units: life-years gained, mmHg reduction, cases of cancer detected, infections prevented, strokes averted.
— Result reported as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) = (Cost_A − Cost_B) / (Effect_A − Effect_B), e.g., $/life-year gained.
— Best when comparing interventions within a single disease category sharing one clinically meaningful outcome.
— A specialized CEA where outcome is quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).
— QALY = years of life × utility weight (0 = death, 1 = perfect health); incorporates both quantity and quality of life.
— ICER reported as $/QALY, allowing comparisons across diseases (e.g., dialysis vs. statins vs. bariatric surgery).
— Stem describes comparing two antihypertensives by BP reduction → CEA.
— Stem compares two cancer therapies differing in survival and toxicity/symptom burden → CUA (quality matters).
— Stem references $50,000–$150,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold → CUA framework.
— Cost-minimization: outcomes assumed equal; cheapest wins.
— Cost-benefit: both costs and outcomes in dollars (monetizes health).

— "A health system is choosing between drug A and drug B for LDL lowering…"
— "Public health department compares two screening intervals for colorectal cancer using cases detected."
— Outcome reported in a single biologic/clinical unit (mmHg, cases prevented, life-years).
— Mentions quality of life, symptom burden, disability, or functional status.
— Compares dissimilar interventions (e.g., hip replacement vs. antiretroviral therapy).
— Uses words QALY, utility weight, time trade-off, standard gamble, EQ-5D.
— Perspective of the analysis: payer, hospital, societal, patient. Societal perspective includes indirect costs (lost productivity, caregiver time); payer perspective usually does not.
— Time horizon: lifetime models almost always require CUA because quality changes accrue over decades.
— Discount rate: typically 3% annually in US analyses for both costs and benefits.
— Comparator: must be the current standard of care, not placebo, unless no treatment exists.
— Stems about value-based purchasing, ACO decisions, or insurance coverage policy lean toward CUA because budgets span many conditions.
— Stems about clinical protocol selection within one service line lean toward CEA.

— Identify whose costs are counted. Societal includes productivity losses, transportation, informal caregiving; payer includes only reimbursable medical costs; hospital includes only internal expenditures.
— Mismatched perspective is the most common bias on the exam.
— Direct medical (drugs, devices, hospital days), direct nonmedical (transport), indirect (lost wages), intangible (pain, suffering—captured in CUA via QALYs).
— Ask: are downstream costs (complications, readmissions) included? Omission inflates apparent cost-effectiveness.
— CEA: life-years, events prevented, surrogate endpoints.
— CUA: QALYs derived from utility weights via standard gamble, time trade-off, or rating scale; population instruments like EQ-5D or SF-6D.
— ICER < $50,000/QALY: traditionally "highly cost-effective."
— $50,000–$150,000/QALY: "acceptable" in current US literature (ICER Institute).
— > $150,000/QALY: "low value."
— A dominant intervention is cheaper and more effective → adopt without ICER calculation.
— One-way varies a single parameter; probabilistic varies all simultaneously via Monte Carlo, producing a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve.

— ICER = (Cost_new − Cost_comparator) / (Effect_new − Effect_comparator)
— Units: $/life-year in CEA, $/QALY in CUA.
— Drug A: $10,000, gains 2 life-years. Drug B (standard): $4,000, gains 1.5 life-years.
— ICER = ($10,000 − $4,000) / (2 − 1.5) = $6,000 / 0.5 = $12,000 per life-year gained → highly cost-effective.
— New biologic: $80,000, yields 6 QALYs. Standard: $20,000, yields 4 QALYs.
— ICER = $60,000 / 2 = $30,000/QALY → adopt (well below $50K threshold).
— Northeast (more costly, more effective): calculate ICER, compare to threshold.
— Southeast (less costly, more effective): dominant—always adopt.
— Northwest (more costly, less effective): dominated—always reject.
— Southwest (less costly, less effective): calculate ICER; may accept if savings large.
— Forgetting to discount future costs/benefits (standard 3%/year).
— Comparing to placebo instead of standard of care—inflates apparent value.
— Using surrogate endpoints (LDL change) when patient-centered outcomes (MI prevented, QALYs) are available.

— QALY = Σ (time in health state × utility weight).
— Utility weight: 1.0 = perfect health, 0 = death, negative values possible (states worse than death).
— Example: 10 years at utility 0.7 = 7 QALYs.
— Standard gamble: patient chooses between current state and a gamble between perfect health and death—most theoretically grounded.
— Time trade-off: how many years of perfect health equal X years in current state?
— Visual analog/rating scale: simple but less rigorous.
— Multi-attribute instruments: EQ-5D, SF-6D, HUI—population-derived weights, widely used in CUA.
— Guidelines (Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine) recommend general population preferences, not patient or clinician preferences, to support resource-allocation decisions.
— Decision tree: short time horizons, discrete outcomes.
— Markov model: chronic disease with health-state transitions over time (e.g., HIV progression, CKD stages).
— Microsimulation: individual-level heterogeneity.
— DALY = years of life lost + years lived with disability; lower is better, used by WHO/Global Burden of Disease.
— QALY: higher is better, dominant in US/UK analyses.

— Outcomes identical between interventions → cost-minimization analysis (rare in real life; assumes equivalence proven).
— Single clinical outcome, same disease → cost-effectiveness analysis (e.g., $/mmHg, $/case detected, $/life-year).
— Quality of life is a major differentiator OR comparing across diseases → cost-utility analysis ($/QALY).
— Need to compare health vs non-health investments (e.g., healthcare vs education spending) → cost-benefit analysis (everything in dollars).
— Two generic statins with identical LDL effects but different prices → cost-minimization.
— Tight vs standard glycemic control measured by HbA1c → CEA.
— Hemodialysis vs kidney transplant (different survival and quality) → CUA.
— Whether to fund a vaccination program vs build a highway → cost-benefit.
— Allows cross-condition comparison within a fixed budget.
— Captures morbidity and mortality in one metric.
— Aligns with payer and societal perspectives.
— Outcomes are intuitive to clinicians (life-years, events prevented).
— Avoids contested utility-weighting methodology.
— Useful for within-disease formulary decisions.

— Direct medical: drug acquisition, administration, monitoring labs, adverse-event management.
— Direct nonmedical: transportation, lodging, home modifications.
— Indirect/productivity: lost wages, caregiver time (only in societal perspective).
— Future unrelated medical costs: controversial; modern guidelines say include them.
— Ideally from head-to-head RCTs; otherwise, network meta-analysis or real-world data.
— Beware of efficacy (trial) vs effectiveness (real-world) gaps.
— Future costs and benefits are discounted to present value, conventionally at 3% per year in US analyses (1.5% in some European settings).
— Discounting reduces the apparent value of long-term benefits (e.g., childhood vaccines, prevention).
— Failing to discount overstates the value of long-horizon interventions.
— Should be long enough to capture all relevant differences—typically lifetime for chronic diseases.
— Too-short horizons bias against prevention.
— In Markov models, events assumed to occur mid-cycle to avoid systematic bias.
— Deterministic (one-way, two-way, tornado diagram).
— Probabilistic (Monte Carlo, distributions on each parameter).
— Output: cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showing probability intervention is cost-effective at each willingness-to-pay threshold.

— Outcome in life-years/events → CEA.
— Outcome in QALYs/DALYs → CUA.
— Societal (broadest) vs payer (narrower). Lifetime vs trial duration.
— Must be current standard of care. Placebo comparators in active-disease settings are a red flag.
— Both costs and benefits at same rate (3%).
— Compare to willingness-to-pay threshold ($50K, $100K, or $150K/QALY depending on context).
— Tornado diagram: bars show how much the ICER changes when each parameter is varied; widest bars = most influential drivers (often drug price, utility weight, or baseline event rate).
— Acceptability curve: y-axis = probability cost-effective; x-axis = willingness-to-pay. A curve crossing 50% near your threshold means borderline value.
— Industry-funded analyses more likely to report favorable ICERs for sponsor's product (publication and modeling bias).
— CHEERS 2022 checklist is the standard for economic evaluation reporting—analogous to CONSORT for RCTs.

— Fewer life-years to gain → smaller denominator → larger ICER.
— Background mortality from competing causes blunts intervention benefit.
— Lower baseline utility weights cap maximum achievable QALYs.
— Statins for primary prevention become less cost-effective above age 75 because lifetime benefit is compressed; secondary prevention remains highly cost-effective at any age due to high event rates.
— Cancer screening (mammography, colonoscopy) loses cost-effectiveness when life expectancy < 10 years—aligns with USPSTF age cutoffs.
— Costs of monitoring, dose adjustment, and adverse events must be modeled. Drugs requiring frequent labs (e.g., warfarin) often look worse than direct oral anticoagulants in CUA despite lower acquisition cost when CKD-related complications are included.
— Utility weights are multiplicative: a patient with diabetes (0.8) and CHF (0.7) might have combined utility ≈ 0.56.
— Failing to adjust overstates QALY gains in multimorbid populations.
— Models should use age- and comorbidity-adjusted life tables, not general population averages.
— Pure QALY maximization can systematically disadvantage elderly and disabled patients. US law (ACA Section 1182) prohibits Medicare from using $/QALY thresholds as the sole basis for coverage—an important policy distinction.

— Long time horizons (decades of remaining life) make prevention extraordinarily cost-effective—childhood vaccines (MMR, HPV, pneumococcal) routinely have ICERs < $10,000/QALY or are cost-saving.
— Utility elicitation is hard: children cannot complete standard gamble; proxy reporting by parents introduces bias.
— Discounting disproportionately penalizes pediatric interventions because benefits accrue late; some argue for lower discount rates for child health.
— Dual beneficiaries (mother and fetus/infant) complicate QALY attribution.
— Prenatal screening (e.g., aneuploidy screening, group B strep, syphilis) generally cost-effective due to high downstream costs averted.
— Counseling and decision-making must respect autonomy regardless of economic findings.
— Standard CUA is distribution-blind: a QALY to a wealthy patient counts equally to a QALY to a marginalized patient, but interventions may not reach both equally.
— Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) explicitly weights gains to disadvantaged groups.
— Equity weights can be applied but are politically contested.
— Lower baseline utility in disabled populations means QALY-maximizing decisions may underinvest in their care—the basis for ADA-related critiques of $/QALY metrics.

— Wrong comparator (placebo instead of standard of care) → inflated ICER favorability.
— Selective cost inclusion (omitting adverse-event management or downstream complications) → biased toward new intervention.
— Surrogate endpoints (LDL, HbA1c) without linking to hard outcomes → uncertain real-world value.
— Short time horizon for chronic disease → undervalues prevention.
— No discounting or inconsistent discount rates → distorts long-term value.
— Industry sponsorship: meta-analyses show industry-funded CEAs are 2–3× more likely to report favorable ICERs.
— Optimistic effectiveness estimates drawn from per-protocol rather than intention-to-treat analysis.
— Cherry-picked utility weights.
— Applying ICER thresholds rigidly without considering budget impact (a $40,000/QALY drug used in 5 million patients still bankrupts the payer).
— Ignoring opportunity cost: every funded program displaces another.
— Discrimination against elderly/disabled via QALY maximization.
— Analyses from one country may not transfer due to different prices, practice patterns, baseline risk.
— Clinicians and patients often misunderstand ICERs as "the cost to save a life"; correct interpretation is incremental cost per incremental unit of benefit vs. comparator.

— Individual clinician: rarely uses formal CEA; relies on guidelines that embed cost-effectiveness reasoning.
— Hospital P&T committee: uses CEA/CUA for formulary inclusion, often supplemented by budget impact.
— Insurance payer: coverage and tier decisions; uses CUA and budget impact.
— National bodies: NICE (UK), CADTH (Canada), PBAC (Australia) make explicit $/QALY-based recommendations; CMS (US) legally cannot use $/QALY as sole criterion for Medicare coverage.
— Borderline ICER near threshold → request probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
— Large budget impact → require budget impact analysis alongside CUA.
— Equity concerns → request distributional CEA or subgroup analyses.
— Industry-only data → seek independent re-analysis (e.g., ICER Institute review).
— ICER (Institute for Clinical and Economic Review): independent nonprofit publishing value assessments; uses $100,000–$150,000/QALY range plus health-benefit price benchmarks.
— PCORI: funds comparative effectiveness research but statutorily prohibited from cost-per-QALY analyses.
— CMS: uses "reasonable and necessary" standard; National Coverage Determinations may incorporate evidence but not formal $/QALY thresholds.
— ACOs, bundled payments, and capitation create direct incentives to choose cost-effective therapies.
— Quality measures (HEDIS, MIPS) operationalize evidence-based, cost-effective practices.

— Assumes outcomes are equivalent; compares costs only.
— Valid only when equivalence is rigorously demonstrated (noninferiority trial).
— Example: two bioequivalent generic statins—pick the cheaper.
— Pitfall: assuming equivalence without evidence.
— Outcome in natural units (life-years, events prevented).
— ICER in $/life-year or $/event.
— Cannot compare across diseases with different endpoints.
— Outcome in QALYs (or DALYs).
— ICER in $/QALY.
— Enables cross-disease comparison; captures quality of life.
— Subtype of CEA per most modern terminology.
— Both costs and outcomes in dollars.
— Requires monetizing health (willingness-to-pay surveys, value of statistical life ≈ $10–11 million in US regulatory practice).
— Allows comparison of health vs non-health investments.
— Ethically controversial because it puts a dollar value on life and health.
— Outcomes equal → CMA.
— Outcomes differ in one clinical dimension → CEA.
— Outcomes differ in quantity and quality of life → CUA.
— Need to compare health vs non-health spending → CBA.

— Efficacy: does it work under ideal (RCT) conditions?
— Effectiveness: does it work in real-world practice?
— Cost-effectiveness: is the benefit worth the cost?
— A drug can be efficacious but not cost-effective (e.g., $400K cancer drug for 2-month survival).
— CEA/CUA = value per patient.
— Budget impact = total financial impact on a payer over a defined horizon (typically 3–5 years).
— Both needed for coverage decisions.
— Compares clinical outcomes of alternatives; does not require cost data.
— PCORI funds CER but cannot fund cost-per-QALY work.
— Umbrella term encompassing clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, ethical, social, and legal implications.
— Setting drug prices based on the QALY value delivered.
— Pareto: no one made worse off. Cost-effectiveness: maximize health per dollar.
— NNT = clinical effect size summary; ICER incorporates cost.
— A low NNT does not guarantee a favorable ICER if the intervention is expensive.
— QALY: gained, higher better, US/UK dominant.
— DALY: averted, lower better, WHO/global health dominant.

— Childhood immunizations (MMR, DTaP, pneumococcal, HPV).
— Tobacco cessation counseling and pharmacotherapy—often cost-saving.
— Hypertension treatment in high-risk adults.
— Statins for secondary prevention of ASCVD.
— Colorectal cancer screening ages 45–75 (USPSTF).
— Diabetic retinopathy screening.
— Aspirin for secondary prevention (not primary in low-risk patients).
— Statins for primary prevention in moderate-risk adults.
— Lung cancer screening with LDCT in eligible smokers.
— Bariatric surgery for severe obesity with comorbidity.
— PSA screening in low-risk men (USPSTF C/D depending on age).
— Annual physicals without targeted preventive services.
— Many novel oncology drugs with marginal survival benefit at high price.
— Generic-first prescribing maximizes cost-effectiveness without sacrificing outcomes.
— Adherence interventions (90-day supplies, pill organizers) often cost-saving.
— Care transitions programs reduce readmissions and are cost-effective for high-risk patients.

— Drug prices change: generics enter, biosimilars launch, prices renegotiated. An ICER of $200K/QALY at brand launch may fall to $20K/QALY post-generic.
— New comparators emerge: a drug cost-effective vs old standard may be dominated by newer therapy.
— Effectiveness estimates mature: real-world data refine RCT estimates.
— Utility weights shift as supportive care improves quality of life in chronic disease.
— Track prescription patterns for high-cost, low-value drugs (formulary stewardship).
— Monitor adherence—even cost-effective drugs lose value if unused.
— Audit readmission rates and downstream costs for transitions-of-care interventions.
— Payers may cover a new therapy contingent on real-world data collection (e.g., registries).
— Risk-sharing agreements: manufacturer rebates if outcomes don't meet targets.
— Discuss out-of-pocket costs as part of shared decision-making (financial toxicity is a recognized adverse effect, especially in oncology).
— Use decision aids that include cost considerations.
— Refer to patient assistance programs and 340B pricing where eligible.
— Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles for high-cost interventions.
— Hospital dashboards tracking value-based metrics.

— Utilitarianism (maximize aggregate QALYs) vs rule of rescue (obligation to save identified individuals at high cost).
— Equity concerns: pure QALY maximization disadvantages elderly, disabled, and those with lower baseline utility.
— Justice: societal cost-effectiveness should not override individual clinical need.
— ACA Section 1182: Medicare prohibited from using dollars-per-QALY as the sole threshold for coverage—reflects disability-rights concerns.
— ACA Section 6301: PCORI cannot use cost-per-QALY in funded comparative effectiveness research.
— EMTALA: emergency stabilization required regardless of cost or insurance.
— ADA: rationing systems that discriminate against disabled individuals face legal challenge.
— Patients have a right to know about out-of-pocket costs before initiating expensive therapy (financial informed consent).
— Disclose if a recommended therapy is cost-effective but not covered, and discuss alternatives.
— Discharging on a brand-name drug the outpatient insurer won't cover causes non-adherence and readmissions—reconcile formulary at discharge.
— Always confirm prior authorization status before discharge for high-cost biologics or specialty drugs.
— Industry-funded analyses must be disclosed; clinicians serving on P&T committees should declare relationships.
— Antimicrobial stewardship programs are required by Joint Commission—cost-effectiveness aligns with safety (resistance prevention).

— CEA outcome unit: natural clinical units (life-years, events prevented).
— CUA outcome unit: QALYs (or DALYs).
— CMA: outcomes assumed equal.
— CBA: outcomes in dollars.
— Societal = broadest (includes indirect costs).
— Payer = medical costs only.
— Modern guidelines (Second Panel) recommend societal AND payer as a "reference case."
— CMS cannot use $/QALY as sole criterion (ACA §1182).
— PCORI prohibited from cost-per-QALY work (ACA §6301).
— ICER Institute publishes independent value assessments.

— "A health system compares two antihypertensives by mmHg reduction…" → CEA.
— "An analysis compares dialysis vs transplant in $/QALY…" → CUA.
— "Two bioequivalent generics differ only in price…" → cost-minimization.
— "Investment in vaccination vs road safety, both in dollars…" → cost-benefit.
— Four numbers given (cost and effect for two interventions). Compute ΔC/ΔE, compare to threshold.
— Watch for dominant (cheaper + better) → no ICER needed.
— Tornado diagram → identify most influential parameter.
— Acceptability curve → probability cost-effective at a given threshold.
— "Robust to sensitivity analysis" → conclusion stable.
— Analysis from payer perspective omitting productivity losses → underestimates societal value of return-to-work interventions.
— ICER < $50K/QALY → highly cost-effective.
— $50K–$150K → acceptable in US practice.
— > $150K → low value, negotiate price or reject.
— "Why can't CMS deny coverage based solely on $/QALY?" → ACA §1182 and disability-rights concerns.
— "Which agency cannot fund cost-per-QALY analyses?" → PCORI.
— Patient cannot afford brand-name → switch to generic (cost-minimization) and document shared decision-making.
— High-cost biologic at discharge → confirm prior authorization to prevent readmission.

Cost-effectiveness analysis measures health outcomes in natural clinical units (life-years, events prevented) and reports an ICER in $/outcome, while cost-utility analysis—a subtype of CEA—measures outcomes in QALYs to enable comparison across diverse interventions using thresholds of roughly $50K–$150K per QALY in US practice.

